2010

The 2010 set covers Asia-Pacific, Europe, Global, North America. Each report is a structural analysis with its reasoning shown, its sources named, and its limits stated.

• Global Investment Outlook 2010 — The Divergent Recovery — The world entered 2010 assuming a shared recovery from a shared shock. What it got was three different economies moving at three different speeds — and a currency union discovering it had built only half of one.
• US Venture Capital Report 2010 — The Funnel Nobody Sized — Seed funding expanded far faster than the capital waiting at the next stage. The result was a shortage that took two years to become visible and was arithmetically guaranteed from the moment the expansion began.
• Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2010 — Capital You Did Not Ask For — Money displaced by zero rates in the developed world arrived in economies that were already growing and had no instrument to refuse it. The tools invented in response — targeted, sectoral, unapologetically interventionist — became standard practice everywhere within a decade.
• Australia Investment Report 2010 — Three Booms in a Trench Coat — Australia was widely described as having a mining boom. It was actually having three sequential and quite different booms, each with its own beneficiaries and its own ending — and confusing them made the eventual adjustment look like a surprise.
• Secondaries Market Report 2010 — A Price for Things That Had Only Had Marks — For thirty years private fund interests had a value determined by the manager who ran them. The secondaries market that grew out of the crisis produced something different and much more uncomfortable: a price set by someone with no interest in the answer.
• Europe Investment Report 2010 — Lending Into the Wrong Diagnosis — The first support programme was designed for a liquidity problem. If the problem was solvency, then lending more money to a borrower who cannot repay makes the eventual restructuring larger — and moves the losses onto official creditors who cannot take them.