The 2012 set covers Asia-Pacific, Europe, Global, North America, Southeast Asia. Each report is a structural analysis with its reasoning shown, its sources named, and its limits stated.
- Global Investment Outlook 2012 — The Sentence That Repriced a Continent — In July 2012 a central banker said he would do whatever it took, and a sovereign debt crisis ended without a single bond being bought under the programme announced. That is not rhetoric working — it is a specific mechanism, and understanding it changes how you read every policy statement since.
- US Venture Capital Report 2012 — The Crunch Arrives on Schedule — The Series A shortage that arrived in 2012 had been arithmetically guaranteed since 2010. It got a name, a great deal of commentary, and almost no analysis of the fact that it was a capacity problem wearing the costume of a quality problem.
- Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2012 — Who Pays for Rebalancing — Everyone agreed the region needed to consume more and invest less. The disagreement was never about the destination — it was that the investment share had been subsidised by households for two decades, and rebalancing meant taking the subsidy back from whoever had been receiving it.
- Indonesia Investment Report 2012 — Spending the Windfall on the Wrong Thing — A commodity boom handed Indonesia a decade of unusual fiscal room, and most of it went into fuel subsidies. The infrastructure that would have raised the economy's potential went unbuilt — and the bill for both decisions arrived together in 2013.
- Private Equity Report 2012 — The Wall That Wasn't — Everyone could see the maturity wall coming. It had been on every chart since 2009. It arrived, and almost nothing happened — because a maturity is a date, and dates can be moved by anyone with an incentive to move them.
- Europe Investment Report 2012 — The Number That Was Wrong by a Factor of Three — Every forecast for the programme countries was too optimistic, in the same direction, for three consecutive years. The cause was a single assumed parameter — how much output falls when a government cuts spending — and it had been set from the wrong period.
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