2013

The 2013 set covers Asia-Pacific, Europe, Global, North America. Each report is a structural analysis with its reasoning shown, its sources named, and its limits stated.

• Global Investment Outlook 2013 — The Cost of Being Misunderstood — A central banker suggested that asset purchases might eventually slow. No policy changed, no rate moved, nothing was actually done — and global bond markets repriced violently. 2013 is the year markets learned what forward guidance costs when it works.
• US Venture Capital Report 2013 — A Mark Is Not a Price — 2013 gave the billion-dollar private company a name, and the name did more work than it should have. A private valuation is produced by one negotiation with one buyer on terms nobody publishes — which makes it a mark, and a mark behaves nothing like a price.
• Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2013 — The Guarantee Nobody Wrote Down — Investors bought products that promised more than a deposit and disclosed less than a bond, on the understanding that someone would step in if they went wrong. Nobody had promised that. Everybody priced it.
• India Investment Report 2013 — What a Crisis Is Good For — India was among the economies hit hardest when capital reversed in 2013, and within eighteen months it had adopted an inflation-targeting framework, rebuilt its reserves and become the region's preferred market. The crisis did not cause the reforms. It removed the reasons for not making them.
• Private Credit Report 2013 — When the Retreat Became Permanent — Banks pulled back from mid-market lending in 2009 because they were damaged. By 2013 they were healthy and still not coming back, because the capital rules had made the business permanently uneconomic for them. That is when private credit stopped being an opportunity and became an industry.
• Europe Investment Report 2013 — Deciding Who Pays When a Bank Fails — For five years the answer had been taxpayers, because the alternative was thought too dangerous. In 2013 a small member state imposed losses on bank creditors including large depositors, and the question of who stands behind a bank was answered differently for the first time.