2015

The 2015 set covers Asia-Pacific, Europe, Global, North America. Each report is a structural analysis with its reasoning shown, its sources named, and its limits stated.

• Global Investment Outlook 2015 — Divergence — 2015 was the year the post-crisis consensus broke apart. The US moved toward tightening while Europe and Japan expanded, China devalued, and oil collapsed — and the resulting divergence in policy became the dominant variable for the next several years.
• US Venture Capital Report 2015 — The Private Market Forms — 2015 was the year US venture capital acquired a shadow public market: private companies large enough to be public, funded by investors who behaved like public investors, priced without any of the discipline a public market imposes.
• Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2015 — The Region That Isn't One — Asia-Pacific is treated as an allocation category and is not an economic one. In 2015 that distinction became expensive, as the region's markets moved in opposite directions for reasons that had nothing in common.
• China Market Report 2015 — Leverage, Not Growth — The Chinese equity market's rise and fall in 2015 is usually explained by the economy. The evidence points somewhere simpler: it was a margin cycle, and reading it as an economic signal was a category error that cost people money.
• Private Equity Report 2015 — The Allocation Shift — Institutions increased private equity allocations sharply in this period, and the reason was not that private equity had improved. It was that the alternative had stopped working.
• Europe Investment Report 2015 — Liquidity Without Formation — Europe began large-scale asset purchases in 2015, years after the US. The money arrived. The companies did not — and understanding why is the question the next decade of European investment kept returning to.