2016

The 2016 set covers Asia-Pacific, Europe, Global, North America. Each report is a structural analysis with its reasoning shown, its sources named, and its limits stated.

• Global Investment Outlook 2016 — The Year Polling Failed — Two political outcomes in 2016 defied the odds markets had assigned them, and in both cases the assets that were supposed to fall rose instead. The lasting lesson is not about politics — it is about the difference between predicting an event and predicting its market consequence.
• US Venture Capital Report 2016 — The Pause — 2016 was the year US venture capital briefly reconsidered. Late-stage funding slowed, down rounds appeared, and the word 'unicorn' acquired an edge. The reconsideration lasted about eighteen months and taught the industry nothing that survived.
• Asia-Pacific Investment Report 2016 — Capital That Wants to Leave — The defining Asia-Pacific story of 2016 was not a market move. It was the pressure of domestic capital seeking foreign assets, and what a government does when it decides that pressure has become a problem.
• UK Investment Report 2016 — Pricing an Unresolvable Question — The UK's referendum result created a question markets could not answer for years, and had to price immediately. What they did instead — split the adjustment between the currency and the equity market — is the most instructive thing about the episode.
• Private Credit Report 2016 — Where the Banks Left — Private credit did not grow because investors discovered it. It grew because post-crisis regulation made a category of lending uneconomic for banks, and the loans still needed making. Understanding that origin explains almost everything about the asset class since.
• Europe Investment Report 2016 — The Integration Premium Reprices — European assets had been priced on an assumption that integration only ever deepens. In 2016 a member state voted to leave, and the market had to work out what a reversible union is worth.